Comment from Stuart Masson, Editorial Director of The Car Expert on UK new car registrations from Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) 2024 year-to-date (YTD) data released today.
“The 2024 UK new car market provides a crucial snapshot of an industry in transition, balancing challenges and opportunities as it shifts toward electrification. While the raw figures suggest that the sector hasn’t reached its mandated 22 per cent electric vehicle (EV) sales target, this headline number oversimplifies a more complex reality.
“The target operates as a net percentage for each brand, with partial credits awarded for plug-in hybrids – which accounted for nine per cent of total registrations in 2024 – and other loophole mechanisms like credit swaps and offsetting 2024 deficits against future sales. This means that the industry collectively has hit the mandated 22 per cent threshold, and no car manufacturer is expected to have to pay any fines.
“The final quarter of 2024 witnessed a surge in EV registrations, driven by a combination of strong discounting and self-registrations as several manufacturers raced to meet Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate targets. November alone recorded a 58 per cent increase in new EV registrations compared to the previous year, with December showing a similar 57 per cent increase.
“However, while some brands comfortably exceeded their mandated targets, there are some big names like Ford and Volkswagen faced with having to buy credits from other brands or offset their shortfall against future sales to avoid fines of £15,000 per non-compliant vehicle.
“The ZEV mandate, though divisive among manufacturers, is undeniably driving the shift from internal combustion engines to EVs. SMMT data underscores this trend, despite pushback from some legacy car companies. While certain manufacturers are adapting effectively, others are struggling, highlighting a fragmented industry response shaped more by self-interest than collective strategy.
“Yet, this progress comes amid significant challenges. Private new car sales have been on a downward trajectory for nearly a decade, with rising vehicle prices far outpacing wage growth. In 2024, private sales accounted for just 38 per cent of total new car registrations, reflecting a widening affordability gap. Increasing taxes on new EVs will only compound this issue.
“Looking ahead to 2025, there are a number of forces at play that will both help and hinder new car sales. Stricter ZEV mandate targets will intensify pressure on some manufacturers, although a growing diversity of EV models should help alleviate some challenges. For example, Ford spent most of 2024 with only one electric model in its line-up – the relatively expensive Mustang Mach-E – while for 2025 it has four models available to consumers and more competitive prices, with the Explorer and Capri now in showrooms and the electric version of the best-selling Puma arriving shortly.
“Fleet sales, which accounted for 60 per cent of all registrations in 2024 and propped up the overall new car market, are likely to plateau after two years of post-pandemic recovery. Meanwhile, the FCA’s ongoing investigation into car finance mis-selling may result in compensation schemes, potentially providing a short-term boost to private sales if payouts materialise.
“Globally, concerns about the viability of certain manufacturers cast a shadow over the UK market. Nissan’s financial struggles pose a potential risk to its Sunderland plant, one of Europe’s largest. A potential Honda merger could either stabilise or further jeopardise its future.
“Stellantis’ recent decision to close its Luton plant in April this year raises concerns about the profitability of UK manufacturing for some car companies. With just 735,000 cars built in the UK in 2024 (as of November) and the export market down 16 per cent, the data presents a bleak overview of our local car manufacturing sector.
“This is not just a UK issue, however. Every Western car company is under intense pressure from China’s growing dominance in all aspects of automotive technology and production, both in traditional internal combustion vehicles and the latest generation of electric cars. This could lead to significant restructuring, model reductions, or even market exits, with several well-known brands at risk.
“As the industry navigates these rapid changes, adaptability and strategic innovation will determine success. 2025 will be a transformative year for the automotive sector, where some manufacturers rise to meet challenges, while others face existential crises.”
