US energy agency revises down Brent price forecast for 2025

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised down the price of Brent crude for 2025, as rising oil inventories are expected to lower prices.

Average Brent crude oil price for this year is expected to be $67.87 per barrel, down from the previous forecast of $74.22, according to the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released late Thursday.

The average price forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has also been revised downward, from $70.68 to $63.88 per barrel.

The anticipated inventory increase is attributed to several factors including a loosening of production cuts by OPEC+, increased output from non-OPEC countries, and a slowdown in global oil demand growth.

Global oil inventories are projected to rise by an average of 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter of 2025, and by 700,000 bpd in the second half of the year. This upward trend is expected to continue at a similar pace in 2026.

In line with the increase in inventories, the average price of Brent crude is expected to decline from $75.83 per barrel in the first quarter of the year to around $64 per barrel in the fourth quarter. For 2026, the average Brent price is forecasted to hover around $61.48 per barrel.

The report also notes that market volatility is being influenced by several geopolitical and economic factors, including the lingering effects of reciprocal tariffs introduced under US President Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policies, and ongoing sanctions against Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.

Uncertainty regarding the pace at which OPEC+ will unwind production cuts, and the degree to which member countries adhere to stated production targets, is also seen as a key factor influencing price projections.

For 2024, the agency had reported an average price of $80.56 per barrel for Brent crude and $76.60 per barrel for WTI.

– US crude production forecast revised down

The EIA projects that average daily crude oil production in the US will reach approximately 13.51 million barrels in 2025, 100,000 bpd lower than the previous month’s forecast.

This figure was recorded at approximately 13.21 million bpd last year.

Meanwhile, global oil supply for this year is expected to reach 104.1 million bpd, with global demand projected at 103.64 million bpd.

By Duygu Alhan