The pole position won by Andrea Kimi Antonelli at Suzuka is not only a prestigious result, but a real turning point within Mercedes. On a technical and selective track like the Japanese one, getting three tenths off George Russell takes on a meaning that goes far beyond the single qualification: it is a clear statement, in a hierarchical and even global key.
If in China the comparison had been partly conditioned by Russell’s problems, in Japan the picture was much cleaner. Antonelli has appeared consistently superior so far throughout all the free practice sessions held, as well as qualifying, where he was able to express his best driving quality. The most obvious reference is the passage to the last chicane, where the Italian made the difference in practically all the sessions and where even in qualifying he had the courage to attack, breaking away from Russell, with courage in entering but also with superior rotation ability. An important signal, because Suzuka is a track that rewards pure talent and trust in the vehicle.
Mercedes, the turning point in Q3
Until Q2, Mercedes had given the impression of being in relative difficulty, unable to fully express its potential. Always very slow on the pit straight, aligned with the rivals on the rest of the track, with a power level that didn’t appear particularly superior. Then, at the decisive moment, something clearly changed.
In Q3 a change was observed in the management of the power unit, in particular in the torque curve in the central sector. In the acceleration sections before the Degner, the hairpin and the Spoon, the thrust became “fatter”, fuller, allowing Antonelli to build the advantage precisely in the most sensitive points of the track.
It is a technical detail that is anything but secondary: Suzuka is not just a race track, but a circuit where the traction phases, often uphill or with lateral support, put the less efficient drive units into difficulty. Mercedes found the key at the right time, and the result was visible, recalling the party mode that we already mentioned on these pages at the beginning of the season. The Brackley single-seater also has an excellent load level and a clearly optimal chassis setup, but when it exhausts the potential of the drive unit it becomes unattainable.
McLaren, clear progress on PU
The work of McLaren is also interesting, as it continues to make progress in understanding and exploiting the power unit supplied to it by Mercedes. We saw during the sessions that the power curves are becoming more and more similar to those of the parent company, a sign of growing maturity in the integration between chassis and hybrid system.
However, there is a detail that deserves attention: on the pit straight, McLaren has always pushed, while Mercedes has adopted a different, almost conservative approach, as if exploiting that downhill stretch to recharge energy. A strategic choice that could also have implications in the race, especially in the management of overtaking and defense. McLaren suffers from a chassis point of view in the first sector and the transition up to the Degner, but, from there, it gains strength thanks to the power curve which precisely follows that of the Mercedes. Note the excellent lap of Oscar Piastri, who has been particularly on top of the ball so far and who will try to fight for the podium in the race.
Ferrari, balance rediscovered but power never so insufficient
Ferrari exits qualifying with disheartening feelings. On the one hand, the progress compared to Friday is evident: the car appeared more balanced, the rear decidedly more stable and with a good ability both to turn on the soft compounds and to then manage them better. In particular, Leclerc showed traits of the highest level, especially in the first sector, both in Q2 and Q3. His passes at Turn 6, in preparation for the climb towards Turn 7, were among the most impressive of the entire session, a sign of great sensitivity, as well as the confidence he found in the car, as well as being confirmation of the chassis quality of the Maranello car, demonstrated by Leclerc’s best overall time in that stretch in both Q2 and Q3. The problem, however, remains evident in the central sector. In the pure power sections, Ferrari suffers markedly: when it comes to pushing uphill, in support or out of slow corners, the Maranello power unit is unable to guarantee the same level of performance as its rivals and in the high part of the power spectrum a high level of clipping comes into play, probably to recover energy for the following traction, and the time lost in sprinting is notable. Among those held so far, the Japanese one is probably the weekend in which the power limit emerges in a decidedly impactful manner, even on a track where many other variables matter. Looking at the data, the impression is of an SF26 that is “empty” of the necessary thrust in many points where the driving torque would be fundamental. An important aspect to underline is that both drivers largely complained about the hybrid energy deployment strategies during the Q3 lap, suggesting that one of the main reasons why Ferrari continues not to improve in the third part of the qualifying session is the inability of the Power Unit management software to adapt to the much tighter conditions of the heart-pounding final lap. Vasseur’s phrase “Another championship will begin from Miami” seems to refer decisively to the qualification, with the probable reduction of the electric power to return to a more “classic” flying lap, and therefore rewarding those who try everything in the last attempt.
Race: Mercedes favourites, but pay attention to the balance
Looking at the race, it is difficult to imagine anyone capable of seriously troubling Mercedes on pure pace. However, the context adds an element of complexity: Antonelli and Russell are clearly not just racing for the stage victory, but are starting to play for something much more demanding in world championship terms, on a track so universally recognized as consecrating in terms of riding. An internal dynamic that could open up interesting scenarios, especially in the initial stages or in the case of divergent strategies. If Wolff’s two champions are the only ones fighting for the victory (as seems to be expected), whichever of the two prevails will face the long break before Miami as leader of the World Championship.
Behind them, the most concrete battle seems to be that between Ferrari and McLaren for the podium. The reds seem to start favored over the Woking single-seaters due to better tire management on long runs, but McLaren’s growth is tangible and it probably won’t be an easy battle for Vasseur’s men. The spectacle offered with the new rules on a wonderful track like the Japanese one was disheartening in qualifying. We’ll see if there will be more fun situations in the race, waiting for a break which, we hope, will be clarifying.
Note: the data provided by the Federation continues to be incredibly irregular and incomplete. Unfortunately, on the lap that earned Antonelli pole, from the exit of the Spoon onwards his data control unit blocked as can be seen from the graph. It’s not just a problem for Mercedes but one that alternated with all the teams throughout the entire session.
