Teams and drivers are preparing for one of the races with the most unknowns ever. Nobody really knows to what extent the new cars will offer overtaking opportunities, on which the possibility of implementing multi-stop strategies will depend. Furthermore, the impression is that this year the softer compound could also be a valid option for the race, as explained to FormulaPassion Simone Berra, Chief Engineer of Pirelli.
Three compounds in play
The feeling is that graining will be a phenomenon to keep an eye on in the race, as is tradition in Australia. “In the race pace simulations we saw some grainingwhich is a factor that we have already encountered in Melbourne in the past”, confirms Berra. “It is not particularly aggressive, we classify it between light and moderate, but it is mainly present on the front axle. Having said that, the basic graining is not a big limit, we have seen very consistent simulations on all three compounds, even the softest. The level of graining is very similar between the compounds, there are no particular differences in severity, nor in terms of wear.”
What makes the difference between the various compounds will be rather the sensitivity to thermal degradation, which in any case appears limited, suggesting a race with a single pit stop: “We expect a one-stop race, without considering the intervention of the Safety Car or Virtual Safety Car. The least risky strategy is the classic medium-hard one, with a pit stop between the 20th and 26th laps. However, we don’t feel like ruling out a possible start on the soft tyres. What is interesting compared to last year is that the C5 does not appear to be just a qualifying compound, but can also be used in the race. It proved to be quite consistent. Mercedes, for example, did consecutive laps in FP3 with limited degradation on the C5, despite the asphalt temperature being around 37-38°C, which is what we expect tomorrow.”
The alternatives
The results of the free practices therefore keep the door open for the use of the soft tire in the race too: “All in all, the soft tire is consistent and can also be used in an initial stint of the race. It gives you extra grip at the start, with the possibility of maybe recovering some positions. I expect someone might try the C5 move at the start, and then switch to the hard tyre. This would also be a one-stop strategy, bringing it forward slightly to the 15th-21st lap.”
Simone Berra does not rule out the possibility of a double pit stop, although he does not consider it the best combination: “The two-stop strategy does not appear to be particularly advantageousto. From our calculations it is around 6-7 seconds slower. Obviously, if there were to be a Virtual or a Safety Car, it would absolutely come back into play. The possible options in the case of two stops could be medium-hard-medium, otherwise there is the very aggressive soft-medium-soft one, with a first stop in this case between the 12th and 18th lap and a second between the 36th and 42nd lap”.
Overtaking opportunities
The chances of seeing multi-stop strategies will also depend on the importance of the track position advantage, closely linked to the ease of overtaking, about which no one is certain at the moment. “The new regulation must be verified and tomorrow will be the counter test”comments Berra. “It’s a circuit where there are straights and I expect overtaking to be possible, as there are also important braking areas such as at turns 1, 3, 9 and 11. In short, it’s a track particularly conducive to overtaking, so I obviously expect there to be the possibility of doing so. How much the new cars and the new regulations favor them compared to before is difficult to say at the moment. It will also depend on how close the cars are in terms of race pace and whether there will be important gaps.”
Furthermore, Mercedes’ Friday simulations highlighted large differences in pace between Russell and Antonelli. It is proof that with the same car the driver has a non-negligible role, but not so much on the performance of the tyres. Berra concludes: “In my opinion it is more linked to energy management, because the tires are quite consistent. Since there is still a lot of development to be done on these cars, which are still in an embryonic phase, at the moment we are a bit conservative on the tire side. I therefore believe it is an issue more linked to energy management and recovery during braking: there the driver can make a substantial difference”.
