Andrea Kimi Antonelli conquers a pole position which perfectly summarizes his technical and analytical skills. The Mercedes standard-bearer makes the difference on one of the most complete tracks in the world championshipputting to good use what we have learned about how to manage energy and how to deal with qualifications. McLaren is also growing, while Ferrari pays for the limits of the package, in addition to its own demerits.
Antonelli’s growth
Antonelli’s second consecutive pole position is even more special than the first, achieved on a much more demanding track than Shanghai and with his teammate free from technical problems. The Italian driver’s talent has never been in question, but the difference is that now he manages to put it all together. Its growth comes from the correct reading of the points in which to pushboth from the point of view of driving and battery management. “I managed to maximize the grip and also the battery, with which George for example struggled more”, comments Antonelli.
The Italian deserves credit for saving energy at the right time, then exploiting it on the forehand: “In my lap I gained a tenth on the straights compared to him, but it was also due to the driving style, which is a little different”. It is confirmation that Kimi has learned not to exaggerate too muchafter in Australia an error in using the accelerator during qualifying had messed up the energy management strategy.
Where Antonelli is maturing, however, is also in his approach to the weekend. On Thursday the Italian explained that starting from China he understood that he had to choose the curves in which to be more daring, evaluating the margins of error against the potential gain. In Suzuka, for example, the blue stands out at the last chicane, losing instead in the first sector, where he recognizes that he still needs to improve: “Respect to me Russell still makes a bit of a difference in the fast corners”. There will be time to work on it, but not before having played a race that puts the lead in the standings at stake. The opportunity is tempting, with Russell never really comfortable with the W17 in Japan, struggling with oversteer exacerbated by the changes made after the last free practices.
Ferrari fails to improve
There is disappointment at Ferrari, which for the third time in a row fails to improve in Q3 despite an encouraging start. Leclerc does not hide his irritation, not so much for the spoonful, but for the time suddenly lost in the straight line compared to his best partials. The SF-26 suffers an undeniable lag in power and energy management from Mercedesbut the team still has some responsibility for not being able to optimize everything. On the one hand, Charles still has to get used to the new way of driving in this Formula 1, where, as frustrating as it may be, one must not take risks or accelerate too early, so as not to confuse the battery software. On the other hand, the impression is that the energy management logic is less flexible than the competition, without being able to adapt to the evolution of the driving style during qualifying to understand when to push with the electric motor and when not.
Looking at the sectors, however, where Ferrari improves the least in Q3 is in the first sectorthe most driven on the track, in which Leclerc shaved just over a tenth compared to Q2, against Antonelli’s three and a half tenths and Piastri’s almost half a second. It will be up to the Cavallino to understand whether the Monegasque driver was already very close to the limit in the second qualifying session or whether he left something along the way, perhaps in the preparation of the tyres. In Q3, with the asphalt 4°C colder than in Q1, in his two attempts Leclerc took to the track last and penultimate, without being able to freely manage his pace to recharge the battery and warm the tires.
| First sector improvements Q2-Q3 [s] | |
| Antonelli | -0.351 |
| Russell | -0.482 |
| Plates | -0.485 |
| Norris | -0.239 |
| Hamilton | -0.269 |
| Leclerc | -0.123 |
McLaren leap
Nonetheless, Ferrari can rejoice in the best overall partials in the first sector, confirming the good downforce of the SF-26, as well as the progress on balance compared to Friday. However, all this was not enough to contain McLaren, third and fifth respectively with Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris. The world champion pays for the delay in preparation for the time lost in free practice due to technical problemswithout which it is reasonable to hypothesize that the papaya formation could monopolize the second row. In particular, the team was once again forced to replace the Briton’s battery, which had already prevented him from taking part in the Chinese Grand Prix, raising some doubts about the reliability of the Mercedes power unit.
In the race it will be tough for McLaren to keep the Ferraris at baywho in addition to having an advantage at the start boast a better pace. It will be even more difficult for Lando Norris, whose setbacks in free practice did not allow him to simulate long-distance pace. In any case, regardless of the final result, it is already an excellent sign for the team to note the progressive reduction of the gap to Mercedes, which went from 8 tenths in Melbourne and 5 in Shanghai to 3 and a half tenths in Suzuka. The improvements are evident, in the structure choices and above all in the energy management strategies. The slow understanding of Brixworth’s power unit is revealing all its sensitivities, helping to understand in which situations it is most profitable to push with the hybrid part, the main key to understanding this Formula 1.
Red Bull crisis
If McLaren improves, the same cannot be said for Red Bullwhich moved another 2 tenths away from Mercedes compared to Australia. The one in most difficulty is Verstappen, fighting against a car that is very understeering in the center of the corner and which tends to show off at fast speeds. It is difficult to say whether the new bodywork brought to Suzuka, available only to the Dutch champion, contributes to this, which certainly was not a step forward in any case. Hadjar on the other hand, with the RB22 not updated, is eighth, behind Gasly’s Alpine and ahead of Bortoleto’s excellent Audi. Also noteworthy is Arvid Lindblad’s tenth place with Racing Bulls, who deserves credit for being close to Red Bull with the same engine.
The picture on Saturday, however, could change during the race. Overtaking will be possible, which is why the pace over the long distance will weigh more than the pace expressed in qualifying, despite moving towards a single-stop strategy. After the checkered flag there will be time for reflection, with a month’s break available to think about any corrections to be made to qualifying, which continues to slow down the drivers’ exuberance.
