The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast upward, citing increased geopolitical risk as a key driver.
Average Brent crude oil price for this year is projected at $68.89 per barrel, up by over $2.90 from the previous month’s estimate of $65.97, according to the EIA’s Short- Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released late Tuesday.
The EIA attributes the revision to a notable rise in geopolitical risk premiums following Israel’s June 13 attacks on multiple nuclear and military sites, as well as civilian areas, in several Iranian cities. The attacks occurred amid ongoing nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US.
Despite the elevated risk premium, the report notes that a significant build in global petroleum inventories is expected to cap further price increases. After averaging $75.83 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, Brent prices are forecast to decline to $64.02 by the fourth quarter and average $58.48 in 2026.
The EIA also noted that its latest projections were finalized before OPEC+ announced its August production targets on July 5. It is also highlighted that the newly announced targets exceed the levels previously assumed in the preparation of the outlook.
In addition, falling oil prices have led US producers to slow drilling and well completion activity throughout the year.
As a result, US crude oil output is projected to decline slightly—from 13.28 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter of 2025 to 13.26 million bpd by the end of 2026.
Thus, Brent crude is expected to average $68.89 per barrel this year, while the average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is projected at $65.22 per barrel, compared to $62.33 in last month’s estimate.
The EIA reported that last year, Brent crude averaged $80.56 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded at an average of $76.60 per barrel.
– US crude production forecast revised up
The EIA projects that average daily crude oil production in the US will reach approximately 13.37 million bpd in 2025, higher than the previous year’s forecast of 13.21 million barrels.
On an annual basis, production is expected to average 13.4 million bpd in 2026.
On the other hand, global oil supply is expected to average 104.61 million bpd this year, while global oil consumption is expected to reach 103.54 million bpd.
In 2026, global supply is expected to average 105.72 million bpd, while consumption is expected to reach 104.59 million bpd.
By Humeyra Ayaz
