The first free practice at Suzuka shows a growing McLaren, with a better ability to exploit the Mercedes power unit. The Silver Arrows, however, remain the favorites for the final victorydisputed between Antonelli and Russell, who start the weekend with different approaches. The Ferrari appears to be in more difficulty, accumulating delays on the straights and also in some driven sections, in which the SF-26 suffers from instability.
McLaren’s leap
Friday in Japan ends with Piastri’s MCL40 in front of everyone, while Norris, hampered for half an hour by hydraulic problems, is unable to fully express his potential. The overall picture, however, confirms that McLaren is growing, especially on the energy management front, a field in which the team had already seen progress in China. World champions are slowly closing the gaps in their understanding of the power unitcatching up with Mercedes which, having developed it first-hand, knows better than anyone how to optimize its battery use strategy. This is also why McLaren remains confident that it can compete in the long term, also trusting in the updates for Miami, the first since the debut of the MCL40.
This does not mean that, in the economy of the Grand Prix, there Mercedes remains the favourite. It cannot be ruled out that the slow start of Toto Wolff’s team depends on the late intervention of the FIA in reducing the recoverable energy in qualifying to 8 MJ, messing up the management strategies that the teams had prepared. “I don’t think anyone was able to try them on the simulator, as these were changes introduced a few days ago”, commented Antonelli on Thursday.
The Italian is the fastest of the Mercedes duo, building his lap time differently from Russell. The Briton is more aggressive in the first sector, while Kimi excels in the second half of the lap, with some charge left in the battery to exploit coming out of the last chicane. The impression is that Mercedes is experimenting with different energy strategies, having to understand how to react to the recent intervention of the FIA. “I think some things were not optimized, especially on my side with energy management”confirms Russell. “There are quite large differences between the teams in terms of delivery and optimization throughout the lap. I don’t think we did everything correctly. Fixing it should be relatively simple.”.
Slow and nervous Ferrari
The first news of the day at Ferrari is the absence of the Macarena, the inverted mobile rear wing, which the team initially planned to try again in Japan. However, this change of program is certainly not enough to explain the gap between the SF-26s, which was more than 7 tenths and in line with what was achieved in previous qualifications. The Reds accumulate most of the delay in the second sector and not just due to the lack of horsepower and energy on the straights. Despite expressing good levels of aerodynamic load, the Ferrari appears nervous, unstable and with a dancing rear end, especially in the corners, so much so that Hamilton justifies his slowness with a lack of confidence in the car. Leclerc is also forced to make several corrections, which have repercussions on the temperature of the tires and above all on the battery, since repeated releases and returns to the accelerator increase energy consumption.
The Cavallino will try to make up ground by working on mechanical and aerodynamic balance, with the aim of competing with McLaren for the role of first pursuer. In fact, in the race pace simulations, the Mercedes stand outwith Antonelli slightly faster than Russell, but always with the variable of different energy strategies. Ferrari, for its part, still seems to have something more over the long distance than McLaren, without forgetting the precious advantage that the Red car enjoys at the start.
Race pace simulations
| ANTONELLI | RUSSELL | LECLERC | PLATES |
| Medium, +8 laps | Medium, +9 laps | Medium, +7 laps | Medium, +7 laps |
| 1’34”5 | 1’34”7 | 1’35”0 | 1’34”9 |
| 1’34”8 | 1’34”5 | High | 1’35”3 |
| 1’34”6 | 1’35”5 | 1’35”6 | 1’35”5 |
| 1’34”5 | 1’34”9 | 1’35”2 | High |
| 1’35”3 | 1’35”5 | 1’35”3 | 1’36”2 |
| High | 1’34”9 | 1’35”5 | 1’36”5 |
| 1’34”2 | 1’35”2 | 1’36”4 | 1’36”5 |
| 1’35”7 | 1’35”4 |
Red Bull in the middle of the group
Red Bull did not go beyond 10th place, despite the updates to the floor and bodywork. Although slow corners, the RB22’s Achilles’ heel, are almost absent at Suzuka, Verstappen continues to complain of strong understeerconfirming that the car’s problems also depend on the aerodynamics and not just on the power unit and overweight. On the other hand, the Milton Keynes team is often capable of making a leap from Friday to Saturday, which is very necessary now to avoid being stuck in the middle of the group.
The fight behind Mercedes, McLaren and Ferrari also sees Audi as the protagonist, seventh with Nico Hulkenberg. At Williams, however, encouraging signs are arrivingperhaps thanks to the mechanical changes to the front suspension, after having found in China and Australia a tendency for the car to lift one of the wheels when cornering. It will also be appropriate to follow Haas, who in the first two races have shown that they can constantly fight for points. In any case, at the top as well as at the back, a lot will depend on the performance that the teams manage to find during the night, reprocessing the data to optimize both the set-up and energy management.
