Antonelli and Russell are ready to battle for the championship lead in Suzuka. Much will be decided at the start, in the face of a race where Pirelli expects a low level of degradationthanks also to the falling temperatures. Graining, however, should not be particularly critical, shifting the emphasis to managing thermal degradation on both axes. Simone Berra, Chief Engineer of Pirelli, illustrates the strategic framework for the Grand Prix.
The best strategies
In Japan, a one-stop race is expected, like the previous ones. Berra explains: “Considering the levels of degradation observed in free practice, you will almost certainly go on a single stopalso because in the race 5-10°C less is expected on the asphalt compared to when the simulations were done. This should help keep thermal degradation under control, which is the main source of long-distance degradation.”
Despite a pause, however, Pirelli considers all three compounds in play: “We do not exclude any of the three. On paper, the fastest strategy is the medium-hard single stop, with the pit stop around the 19th-25th lap. Otherwise, you can think about starting on the soft to have extra grip at the start and then going on the hard. In that case, we should shorten the first stint on the soft a little and lengthen the one on the hard.”
Berra continues: “The advantage of going with the medium and hard is that you have more flexibility in the event of a Safety Car, while the soft forces you to stop earlier. We don’t even rule out the use of soft and medium, but it is a much more aggressive strategy and requires more management. On a severe circuit like Suzuka, it is probably not the winning strategy and on paper it is slower than the other two mentioned.” Setting the race over three stints doesn’t seem to be advantageous either: “Two-stop strategies are significantly slowerabout 12 seconds longer. They can only be an option in the event of a Safety Car in the second part of the race.”
The keys to the race
Graining was the main limiting factor in Australia and China, but in Suzuka the race situation will be different: “We have not seen any significant graining phenomenaonly a few relative cases from some teams in particular, but not in a generalized way for everyone. It is linked to the balance of the individual cars and the driving style of the driver, we do not consider graining to be a big problem. It could happen for some teams with a full load of fuel if they are in traffic or if they do little management.”
The game will be played above all on the management of thermal degradation, which must be paid attention to in all sectors. The Pirelli Chief Engineer explains: “At Suzuka, as usual, both axles see particularly high energies. As for the temperature and degradation management, the front is very important in the first sector’s big snake, while in the second and third, where there are more traction zones, it will be important to manage the rear to avoid overheating and thermal degradation. We must avoid causing the wheels to spin,” concludes Berra.
