South Africa’s new vehicle market has carried the momentum of 2025 into the new year, with January sales confirming that the industry’s upward trajectory remains firmly on track. According to naamsa | the Automotive Business Council, 50,073 units were sold in January 2026, marking a 7.5% increase on the same month last year. While this growth is more moderate than the 10.4% surge seen in January 2025, it signals a market transitioning from rapid recovery to sustainable expansion.
Looking at the past three years, the improvement is undeniable. January 2024 saw 42,023 units sold, rising to 46,398 units in January 2025 as the market began its recovery. Now, with January 2026 surpassing 50,000 units, it is clear that volumes above this threshold are becoming the norm rather than the exception.
“Looking at successive January numbers tells the story better than any single month,” says Lebo Gaoaketse, Head of Marketing and Communication at WesBank. “January 2024 was defined by restraint, January 2025 by recovery, and January 2026 by consolidation. What we’re seeing now is a market that has stabilised, not overheated.”
Breaking down the figures, passenger cars rose 7.1% to 37,190 units, reflecting a measured pace compared with January 2025’s 18.3% surge, which was largely driven by rental companies rebuilding fleets. Light commercial vehicles experienced a strong rebound, climbing 11% to 10,996 units and reversing the 9.1% decline of the previous year. Meanwhile, medium commercial vehicles declined 5.9%, and heavy trucks and buses fell 4.3%, underscoring ongoing caution in infrastructure investment decisions.
The market’s resilience is underpinned by continued consumer affordability. Inflation remains within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range, with long-term expectations at multi-year lows.
“The repo rate held at 6.75% in January, and potential cuts in March should give consumers cautious optimism. If the Rand’s appreciation against the dollar remains stable, it will help moderate vehicle prices. Competitive imports will also continue to offer buyers diverse options across segments,” Gaoaketse explains.
This positive momentum comes alongside an intensified government focus on automotive policy, particularly regarding tariffs and localisation incentives. A firmer rand and continued import competition may help keep prices in check, but upcoming policy decisions will be a critical factor in shaping the market’s trajectory.
The domestic automotive sector has also received structural support, including announcements around expanded local production and initiatives to strengthen South Africa’s manufacturing base. These measures provide long-term backing for competitiveness, employment, and supply stability, particularly as global OEMs reassess production footprints in response to shifting trade dynamics.
“The market has positioned itself well for 2026, but important decisions lie ahead,” Gaoaketse notes. “Tariff decisions often have significant ripple effects. Sustaining growth will require balancing the needs of consumers with the requirements of the industry. Given the volatile global environment, policymakers will need to tread carefully.”
January’s performance suggests that the underlying momentum is genuine rather than temporary. While this bodes well for the year ahead, sustaining growth will depend on striking the right balance between protecting local manufacturing and maintaining accessibility for consumers. The finalisation of the automotive policy review will provide important clarity on the industry’s direction, with the new vehicle market having entered 2026 on solid footing.
