PRETORIA – The South African new vehicle market has entered 2026 on a positive trajectory, carrying the momentum built throughout 2025 into the new year, according to naamsa | The Automotive Business Council.
Aggregate domestic new vehicle sales in January reached 50,073 units, marking a 7,5% increase compared to the 46,594 vehicles sold in the same month last year. Exports also grew, albeit more modestly, with 24,568 vehicles shipped abroad, a 0,6% rise compared to January 2025.
naamsa notes that this performance reflects more than a carry-over effect; it signals a tangible improvement in underlying demand conditions, underpinned by moderating inflation, stable macroeconomic indicators, and a resilient consumer base. Dealer sales accounted for the bulk of the market, representing an estimated 85,4% of total sales, while car rental, corporate fleets, and government purchases made up 10,9%, 2,1%, and 1,6% respectively.
Passenger Cars and Light Commercial Vehicles Drive Growth
The new passenger car segment registered 37,190 units, up 7,1% year-on-year, with car rental contributing 13,3% of these sales. Light commercial vehicles, including bakkies and mini-buses, recorded 10,996 units, an 11,0% increase, reflecting steady demand from the goods-producing sectors.
Conversely, medium and heavy commercial vehicle sales faced headwinds in January. Medium commercial vehicles dropped 5,9% to 542 units, while heavy trucks and buses declined 4,3% to 1,345 units. naamsa attributed this softness to factors such as infrastructure investment trends, electricity costs, logistics performance, and broader investment confidence, all of which continue to influence fleet replacement decisions.
Exports and Global Competitiveness
South Africa’s vehicle exports showed resilience, supported by currency stability and easing input costs, although the outlook is increasingly shaped by heightened protectionism in key markets. Trade-restrictive measures, shifting industrial policies, and evolving global supply chain dynamics are expected to challenge South Africa’s export competitiveness. naamsa highlighted that maintaining cost competitiveness and policy certainty will be critical to sustaining market share in the medium to long term.
Macro-Economic Tailwinds
The new vehicle market is benefiting from a stable macroeconomic environment. Headline inflation remains within the South African Reserve Bank’s target range, with long-term inflation expectations at multi-year lows. The SARB’s January decision to maintain the repo rate at 6.75% – alongside market expectations of a potential 25-basis point cut later in the year – supports affordability and positive buyer sentiment. Additionally, the Rand’s appreciation against the US dollar has reduced imported inflation pressures, helping moderate vehicle price increases and supporting real household purchasing power.
Looking Ahead
The industry now awaits the finalisation of the comprehensive review of South Africa’s automotive policy framework, a critical step for securing long-term competitiveness, investment attractiveness, and resilience. In a rapidly evolving global automotive landscape – defined by technological disruption, shifting trade alliances, and energy transition pathways – a coherent and forward-looking policy framework will be essential to secure South Africa’s role in regional and global automotive value chains.
naamsa emphasises that sustained macroeconomic stability, combined with credible policy direction, will remain pivotal in reinforcing the sector’s competitiveness and ensuring a robust growth trajectory for South Africa’s automotive industry throughout 2026 and beyond.
