Tesla is predicted to be the best-selling car brand in the UK by 2036, according to a new study by CarGurus — a leading automotive marketplace in the U.K. for shopping and buying used vehicles.
Commissioned to mark CarGurus’ 10th anniversary in the UK, the survey polled 1,000 UK drivers aged 27 or over to understand how they expect used car buying trends and preferences to change over the next decade.
While Tesla is forecast to be Britain’s top seller, those surveyed also believe that hybrid vehicles will be the most popular between now and 2036. The findings highlight a market where electrification is expected to grow alongside sustained demand for practical technologies and enhanced safety features.
The Next Decade
While nearly 1-in-4 respondents (23%) selected Tesla as the brand they expect to be the best-selling manufacturer in 2036, BMW (20%) and Mercedes-Benz (19%) follow closely behind, showing that consumers expect today’s leading automakers to remain highly competitive over the next decade.
Chinese brands rank lower in consumers’ predictions, with BYD selected by 9% of respondents and MG by 2%. A further 9% believe a new entrant to the market could be the best-selling brand by 2036, reflecting consumer openness to new brands.
Buyers also anticipate a more diverse mix of powertrains. Hybrid vehicles are expected to be the most popular choice for the next decade (selected by 41% of respondents), suggesting they are seen as a practical bridge between traditional petrol engines and fully electric vehicles (selected by 33% and 32%, respectively). Diesel is expected to be less popular in the future, with just 15% of respondents expecting to choose the fuel.
In terms of vehicle body styles, SUVs are expected to tighten their grip on the market. Medium SUVs are predicted to dominate the next decade according to 40% of respondents, ahead of small SUVs (28%). Hatchbacks meanwhile, which are the most popular body style (28%) according to a 2026 CarGurus study on the top used cars of the last decade, are expected to drop to third place by 2036 (21%).
The Car of the Future
While technology will continue to evolve, drivers are clear that the fundamentals must not be overlooked. Longevity, reliability and ease of servicing (44%) top the list of what people want car makers to prioritise in the years ahead, followed closely by safety technology (42%) and improved powertrain efficiency (31%).
At the same time, there is a strong appetite for features that make driving more convenient. More than a third of drivers (38%) say they couldn’t live without self-parking technology in the future, while 30% highlight autonomous driving capabilities. Meanwhile, 27% point to battery swapping as a desirable innovation, signalling interest in solutions that make electrification more practical.
Chris Knapman, CarGurus UK Editorial Director, said: “Tesla’s rise shows just how quickly the automotive landscape can change. Yet despite the growing presence of Chinese manufacturers, UK buyers still expect established European brands such as BMW and Mercedes-Benz to challenge for the top spot in 2036, suggesting Chinese brands have yet to establish themselves as the dominant force in consumers’ minds.”
For drivers keen to explore how the UK’s car market could evolve, CarGurus has published an article exploring the brands, powertrains, body styles and buying trends that could shape 2036. Shoppers can also use CarGurus’ Discover, a conversational AI car-shopping experience, to navigate today’s options and find their best deal across the UK’s used car market.
