Oil rises on Fed rate cut expectations, geopolitical supply risks

Oil prices rose on Monday amid expectations of upcoming US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts — which could support economic growth and bolster energy demand — along with ongoing geopolitical risks affecting Russian and Venezuelan supply.

International benchmark Brent crude was trading at $63.72 per barrel at 9.30 a.m. local time (0630 GMT), up around 0.1% from the previous close of $63.64.

US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also increased by about 0.1% to $59.99, compared to $59.93 in the prior session.

Market expectations for a Fed rate cut at the central bank’s upcoming meeting remain firm. Analysts note that traders are largely pricing in a 25 basis-point cut, keeping oil prices trading within a tight range.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said he was disappointed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had not read Washington’s proposed “peace plan.” Trump claimed that both the Ukrainian people and Russia “liked the plan,” adding that it was unclear whether Zelenskyy had reservations about it.

Zelenskyy, meanwhile, said Russia had launched more than 1,600 drones, around 1,200 guided aerial bombs, and nearly 70 missiles against Ukraine in the past week.

The slow progress in peace negotiations has strengthened supply concerns, offering additional support to oil prices. Analysts note that a potential ceasefire represents the clearest downside risk for crude, while any lasting damage to Russia’s oil infrastructure remains a significant upside risk.

Some analysts also expect Russian crude and refined product exports to increasingly bypass existing sanctions over time, suggesting that current worries about a global supply surplus may eventually materialize — potentially pushing prices toward $60 per barrel during 2026.

Additionally, Trump said during a White House briefing that the US is stepping up pressure on narcotics trafficking routed through Venezuela, signaling that ground operations may begin soon, adding another layer of geopolitical risk to oil markets.

By Duygu Alhan