Sandton, South Africa – Toyota South Africa Motors (TSAM) recently hosted its ninth annual State of the Motor Industry (SOMI) event, bringing together industry leaders, policymakers, media, and mobility stakeholders under the timely theme, “Driving Through Disruption.” The event explored the challenges of global volatility, strategies to strengthen industrial competitiveness, and the acceleration of South Africa’s transition to new energy vehicles (NEVs).
TSAM President and CEO Andrew Kirby welcomed attendees from across the automotive value chain, including NAAMSA, AITF leaders, component suppliers, dealer representatives, and members of the media. He expressed gratitude for the loyalty and collaboration that continue to drive the South African auto industry forward. “Our strength as an organisation is built on our suppliers, our dealer network and our interdependent ecosystem. We walk this journey together and we are deeply grateful for the support that continues to move our industry forward,” said Kirby.
Navigating Global Disruption and Local Performance
Addressing the realities of a rapidly changing world, Kirby emphasised that disruption is no longer a question of “if” but “how.” “Driving through disruption requires resilience, curiosity and continuous innovation,” he said. He also highlighted the need for balanced growth in the local automotive sector. While vehicle volumes are rising, complete knock-down (CKD) production has seen a decline. “It is not sufficient to only see volume growth stem from an increase in the entry (affordable) models as this does not have significant GDP impact. We also can’t rely on exports to fill the gap – global regulation and forces will impact where we can export to,” Kirby noted.
Kirby reinforced TSAM’s commitment to treating each customer uniquely, shaping products and services around real-world conditions, and enhancing industrial competitiveness through local investment, supply-chain localisation, and stable policy engagement.
Strengthening South Africa’s Industrial Competitiveness
Beyond vehicle sales, Kirby highlighted structural challenges confronting South Africa’s manufacturing sector: rising energy and labour costs, logistics constraints, and increasing input costs. These pressures, he warned, risk premature deindustrialisation. “We cannot become a purely import-driven market. With the right small policy adjustments, we can strengthen competitiveness, attract new investment and grow the economy,” he said.
A Pragmatic Multi-Pathway Transition to NEVs
Kirby welcomed the European Union’s recent revision of its 2035 target, now allowing internal combustion engine (ICE) and hybrid vehicles to remain viable if powered by low-carbon fuels or offset through other decarbonisation measures. He contrasted this with South Africa’s current absence of an NEV target or regulatory framework, noting that additional incentives for battery electric and fuel cell electric vehicles would come into effect in April.
“South Africa must set clear goals and supportive policies aligned to global trends to accelerate NEV adoption in support of our 2050 net-zero commitments,” Kirby urged. He highlighted the practical benefits of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in local usage conditions, alongside a growing role for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) as charging infrastructure and total cost of ownership improve.
Professor Justin Barnes, a leading industrialisation expert, echoed the urgency of targeted interventions to support NEV adoption, emphasising infrastructure investment, industry-government collaboration, and workforce readiness as critical success factors.
Global Economic Outlook and Local Opportunities
Economist Goolam Ballim provided insight into the global macroeconomic environment, including commodity cycles, currency fluctuations, and shifts in global demand. While acknowledging persistent headwinds, he highlighted opportunities for South Africa to leverage industrial strategy, energy stability, and aligned economic policy for growth.
A Vision for Growth
Looking ahead, Kirby expressed confidence that with supportive policy and economic frameworks, South Africa could exceed 700,000 vehicle sales and lift production beyond 720,000 units. Achieving these targets could generate R21 billion in additional manufacturing value-add and up to 14,500 direct jobs, with wider multiplier effects across the economy.
“We must not simply defend what we have – we must grow. This industry has built deep capabilities over 100 years. With decisive leadership, collaboration and smart interventions, we can secure the next era of automotive manufacturing in South Africa,” Kirby concluded, highlighting encouraging progress in government–industry engagement through NAAMSA, NAACAM, and AITF.
The event underscored the importance of proactive policy alignment to support the 2029–2030 investment cycle, ensuring that South Africa remains competitive in an era defined by disruption, innovation, and the transition to sustainable mobility.
